Rankings

College Football's Opponent-Adjusted Top 25: Ohio State Passes Alabama

By termiNIL Research Published October 16, 2026 3 min read Model data as of October 14, 2026

The short answer

termiNIL's opponent-adjusted TIG board ranks Ohio State No. 1 this week, passing Alabama, which held the top spot last week. Arizona is the board's biggest top-10 mover, climbing from 20th to 7th without a top-10 offense (13th) or defense (12th). The board does not use NIL roster spend as an input — Oregon's $52.23M roster, the sport's largest, ranks only 24th.

Key takeaways

Ohio State ranks No. 1 on termiNIL's opponent-adjusted TIG board this week, passing Alabama, which was No. 1 last week and is now No. 2.
Arizona climbed from 20th to 7th week over week, cracking the top 10 without ranking top 10 in offense (13th) or defense (12th) individually.
Memphis has the No. 1 opponent-adjusted offense in the country but ranks 97th on defense, netting out to No. 9 overall on a $20.27M roster, the cheapest in the current top 10.
Oregon carries the most valuable modeled NIL roster in college football at $52.23M, yet ranks 24th on the adjusted board, which does not use roster spend as an input.
Texas A&M has the 6th-richest modeled roster in the sport at $47.10M but ranks 102nd on this week's board, the widest gap between modeled dollars and adjusted performance inside the top 10 richest rosters.
Florida State fell the furthest of any team that opened the week in the top 20, dropping from 17th to 45th as its adjusted defense slid to 99th nationally.

Most "team power rankings" on the internet are either a media poll dressed up as analysis or a ranking that quietly bakes in whichever team is spending the most. termiNIL's TIG board does neither: it grades every FBS team on opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive composites built from six per-play endpoints, using only games played this season, with roster spend left out entirely.

That makes it useful for a question other rankings can't answer cleanly: is a team actually playing well against the schedule it has faced, independent of who it recruited or what its NIL roster costs? This week's update, through games played by 2026-10-14, has a new No. 1 and one of the sharpest offense-without-defense profiles of the season.

Who Is No. 1 on the TIG Board This Week?

Ohio State takes over the top spot, passing Alabama, which had been No. 1 the week before. The full top 10:

Rank	Team	Off Rank	Def Rank	Last Week	Roster Value
1	Ohio State	3	5	2	$49.91M
2	Alabama	2	10	1	$44.73M
3	Indiana	4	7	3	$42.54M
4	Notre Dame	8	2	4	$47.79M
5	Miami	10	11	5	$44.83M
6	Louisville	5	42	14	$32.43M
7	Arizona	13	12	20	$32.77M
8	UCLA	11	21	8	$25.92M
9	Memphis	1	97	7	$20.27M
10	Georgia	7	36	9	$48.33M

Ohio State and Alabama are close — both rank inside the top 10 on both sides of the ball — and the gap between them is thin enough that it could flip again next week. Indiana, Notre Dame and Miami held their positions exactly, the most stable stretch in this week's board.

Which Team Climbed the Most Into the Top 10?

Arizona, by a wide margin. It climbed from 20th to 7th overall, the largest jump of any team now inside the top 10, driven by an offense that rose to 13th and a defense at 12th. Louisville (14th to 6th) and BYU (29th to 13th) also moved up double digits, both pushed by top-5-caliber offenses: Louisville's ranks 5th nationally, BYU's 17th.

What Does "Balanced" Mean on This Board?

Arizona is this week's cleanest example of a team that ranks well overall without either unit individually cracking the top 10: 7th overall, 13th on offense, 12th on defense. Neither number alone reads as elite. Together, they're the 7th-best team in the country by this measure.

Memphis is the opposite case. Its offense ranks No. 1 in the country, but its defense ranks 97th — a near-worst-case gap for a top-10 team. The two average out to No. 9 overall, making Memphis the board's most lopsided top-10 team and, at a $20.27M modeled roster, its cheapest.

Does the Richest NIL Roster Have the Best Adjusted Team?

No, and the board is built so that it can't. Oregon's $52.23M modeled roster is the most valuable in college football, more than any other program, but Oregon ranks 24th on this week's TIG board — a middling offense (54th) carried partly by a top-20 defense (17th).

Texas A&M is the sharper version of the same gap. Its $47.10M roster is the 6th-richest in the sport, but it ranks 102nd on the adjusted board this week, pulled down by a 123rd-ranked offense. No amount of modeled roster spend moves either number, because the board doesn't read dollars at all.

Who Fell the Furthest?

Florida State, among teams that opened the week ranked in the top 20. It dropped from 17th to 45th, a 28-spot fall driven almost entirely by its defense, which slid to 99th nationally while its offense held at 20th.

The TIG board updates weekly as new games are graded; roster values update continuously as the model reprices players. Check any team's current numbers on the termiNIL terminal, or see how national ranking and roster value diverge across the rest of the sport.

Frequently asked questions

Who is No. 1 on termiNIL's opponent-adjusted TIG board this week?

Ohio State, as of the week 6 data update (through 2026-10-14). Ohio State ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 5th in adjusted defense, enough to pass Alabama, which held No. 1 the prior week and now sits at No. 2.

What is the TIG board, and how is it different from NIL value?

termiNIL's TIG board grades each team on opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive composites built from six per-play endpoints, using only 2026 games. It is dollar-neutral: roster spend is not an input. A team's NIL roster value, tracked separately, is a modeled estimate of what its players are worth in the NIL market.

Does the richest NIL roster have the best adjusted team?

No. Oregon's $52.23M roster is the most valuable in college football, but Oregon ranks 24th on this week's opponent-adjusted board. Texas A&M's $47.10M roster, the 6th-richest, is attached to a 102nd-place adjusted ranking — the board does not treat roster spend as a performance input.

What does it mean for a team to be 'balanced' on the TIG board?

On termiNIL's board, balance means ranking well overall without either side of the ball cracking the top 10 individually. Arizona is this week's clearest example: 7th overall with a 13th-ranked offense and a 12th-ranked defense, neither of which alone would place it in the top 10.

Which team fell the most on this week's TIG board?

Florida State, among teams that opened the week ranked in the top 20. It dropped from 17th to 45th as its adjusted defense fell to 99th nationally, while its offense held steady at 20th.

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Sources & data

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Methodology note. All player valuations on termiNIL are modeled estimates produced by a transparent bottom-up factor model — position base × role × production grade × team × market × social reach. They are not reported salaries, verified contract figures, or statements of fact about any athlete's actual compensation, and they are calibrated on an ongoing basis against confirmed market data. termiNIL is independent and is not affiliated with the NCAA, the College Sports Commission, any school, collective, or agency.

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