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College Football's Biggest NIL Value Movers This Week

The short answer

termiNIL's Sept. 29-Oct. 1, 2026 snapshot shows USC quarterback Jonas Williams with the week's largest dollar gain, up 52% to a modeled $1.91 million, while Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer fell the most in dollar terms, down 32% to $1.89 million. Nine of the ten next-largest gains are starting quarterbacks, each up between 5% and 10%, a sign of tier-wide repricing rather than nine separate performances.

Key takeaways
  • Jonas Williams (USC, QB) posted the week's largest dollar gain, up 52% to a modeled $1.91M.
  • John Mateer (Oklahoma, QB) took the week's largest dollar decline, down 32% to $1.89M despite 124,721 followers.
  • Nine of the week's fifteen biggest gainers are starting quarterbacks, each up 5% to 10% to between $2.03M and $4.09M.
  • Audavion Collins (Penn State, CB) posted the week's largest percentage gain, up 75% to $577K.
  • 11 of the week's 15 biggest dollar losses already carried a D+ grade or worse before this snapshot.
  • termiNIL now prices 14,068 players for a combined market of $3.17B, with a $103K median valuation.

USC quarterback Jonas Williams posted the largest dollar gain in this week's termiNIL snapshot, up 52% to a modeled $1.91 million. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer lost the most ground in dollar terms, down 32% to $1.89 million. Both numbers come from the same comparison window, Sept. 29 to Oct. 1, 2026, across the 3,713 players termiNIL revalued in that span.

Look past the top two names and a different pattern shows up on each side of the ledger. Nine of the week's fifteen biggest gainers are starting quarterbacks, each moving within a five-to-ten-point band. Eleven of the week's fifteen biggest losers were already graded D+ or worse before this snapshot. That is not nine unrelated big games or eleven unrelated bad ones — it is what a tier-based repricing model looks like when a role group gets a collective nudge and an already-discounted group keeps sliding.

Who Gained the Most NIL Value This Week?

PlayerTeamPosChangeNew Value
Jonas WilliamsUSCQBup 52%$1.91M
Alonza BarnettUCFQBup 19%$3.09M
Jalen CooperSMUWRup 40%$1.11M
Audavion CollinsPenn StateCBup 75%$577K
Colton JosephWisconsinQBup 7%$3.70M
Kamario TaylorMississippi StQBup 8%$3.01M
Hunter SummersArkansas StateWRup 47%$652K
Bear BachmeierBYUQBup 5%$4.09M
Sam LeavittLSUQBup 5%$3.96M
Ashton DanielsFlorida StateQBup 9%$2.34M

Williams (B-, medium confidence, backup) and Jalen Cooper (C, medium confidence, SMU's fourth receiver) are classic thin-sample swings — both started from a valuation under $800K, so a single tier adjustment moves the percentage a lot. Colton Joseph, Kamario Taylor, Bear Bachmeier, Sam Leavitt, and Ashton Daniels are the opposite case: established, multi-million-dollar starters whose gains land inside a tight 5%-to-9% band, which is the signature of a role-tier bump rather than five separate breakout weeks.

Who Lost the Most NIL Value This Week?

PlayerTeamPosChangeNew Value
John MateerOklahomaQBdown 32%$1.89M
CJ BrownArkansasWRdown 41%$669K
Dylan LonerganRutgersQBdown 34%$893K
Cataurus HicksPittsburghWRdown 38%$679K
Ore AdeyiNorthwesternCBdown 49%$302K
Rico ScottAlabamaWRdown 23%$891K
Dezz RicksTexas A&MCBdown 40%$324K
Kwazi GilmerNebraskaWRdown 11%$1.64M
Enow EttaMichiganDTdown 44%$252K
Lance HoltzclawUtahDEdown 22%$706K

Mateer carries a D grade (36) and high confidence despite 124,721 followers, the most of anyone on either list this week — a reminder that follower count and modeled value are separate inputs. CJ Brown, Dylan Lonergan, Cataurus Hicks, Ore Adeyi, Rico Scott, Dezz Ricks, and Enow Etta all share the same trait: each was already graded D+ or worse heading into this snapshot, and all seven lost between 23% and 49% of an already-discounted value. Kwazi Gilmer is the outlier — a B- grade and 138,372 followers, still down 11%, the only clear exception to the low-grade pattern on this list.

Why Are So Many Quarterbacks Gaining at the Same Time?

Nine starting quarterbacks — Alonza Barnett (UCF), Colton Joseph (Wisconsin), Kamario Taylor (Mississippi State), Bear Bachmeier (BYU), Sam Leavitt (LSU), Avery Johnson (Kansas State), Gio Lopez (Wake Forest), Caden Veltkamp (Florida Atlantic), and Alessio Milivojevic (Michigan State) — gained value this week, spanning the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, AAC, and SBC. Excluding Barnett's 19% jump, the other eight all land between 5% and 10%, a tighter band than the week's losers show. No single slate of upsets explains eight starters across six different conferences moving the same fraction in the same 48 hours. It is a sign of termiNIL's model applying the same adjustment to every established QB1 who shares a confidence tier, which is worth knowing before reading any one quarterback's gain as a verdict on that week's game.

How Big Is the College Football NIL Market Right Now?

termiNIL prices 14,068 players for a combined market of $3.17B, with a $103,000 median valuation and 468 players above $1 million. Separately, termiNIL's audit currently holds 227 players out of rankings and blog callouts because their pricing looks implausible on its face — a seven-figure valuation with zero snaps, for instance. None of the players named above are on that excluded list; every mover here carries a valuation termiNIL is willing to stand behind, even where confidence is still developing.

Check any player's current valuation, grade, and confidence level in the termiNIL terminal, or read how NIL valuations are calculated for the full methodology behind these numbers. For last week's snapshot, see the Sept. 29 movers report.

Frequently asked questions

What is termiNIL's NIL value movers list?
It's a comparison of termiNIL's modeled valuations for every tracked player across two snapshots, isolating the largest dollar and percentage changes. This one compares Sept. 29, 2026 to Oct. 1, 2026 across 3,713 players with a valuation on both dates, inside a market termiNIL prices at $3.17B total.
Why did Jonas Williams' NIL value jump this week?
USC's backup quarterback carries a B- grade (80) with medium confidence and 22,971 followers, and his modeled value rose 52% to $1.91M as termiNIL's model absorbed fresh role and performance data. It's the largest single dollar gain of the week among the players termiNIL tracks.
Why are so many starting quarterbacks gaining value by similar percentages?
Nine different starting quarterbacks, from Wisconsin to BYU to Wake Forest, each gained between 5% and 10% in the same window. Different teams, different conferences, the same narrow band, which points to termiNIL's model applying a tier-wide adjustment to established starters rather than nine unrelated on-field performances.
How many college football players does termiNIL track?
termiNIL currently prices 14,068 players across 138 programs for a combined market of $3.17 billion. The median individual valuation is $103,000, and 468 players are valued above $1 million.
Are all valuations on this list confirmed accurate?
No. termiNIL's audit process currently holds 227 players out of rankings and callouts because their pricing looks implausible, a seven-figure value with no snaps, for example. None of the movers named in this post are on that excluded list.

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Methodology note. All player valuations on termiNIL are modeled estimates produced by a transparent bottom-up factor model — position base × role × production grade × team × market × social reach. They are not reported salaries, verified contract figures, or statements of fact about any athlete's actual compensation, and they are calibrated on an ongoing basis against confirmed market data. termiNIL is independent and is not affiliated with the NCAA, the College Sports Commission, any school, collective, or agency.

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